كتب محرر دارالغربة : هذا المقال استدعى تعليقات كثيرة تجد بعضها آخره , كما استدعى ردا هو الذي لفت نظري إليه جعلته بعده لترى تهافته ونقلت التعليقات عليه أيضا لما فيها من مناقشة مهمة.
Can Israel Survive? - Victor Davis Hanson - National Review Online
Can Israel Survive?
The country has never been in more danger.
Will Israel survive? That question hasn’t really been asked since 1967. Then, a far weaker Israel was surrounded on all sides by Arab dictatorships that were equipped with sophisticated weapons from their nuclear patron, the Soviet Union. But now, things are far worse for the Jewish state.
Egyptian mobs just tried to storm the Israeli embassy in Cairo and kill any Israelis they could get their hands on. Whatever Egyptian government emerges, it will be more Islamist than before — and may renounce the peace accords with Israel.One thing unites Syrian and Libyan dissidents: They seem to hate Israel as much as the murderous dictators whom they have been trying to throw out.
The so-called Arab Spring was supposed to usher in Arab self-introspection about why intolerant strongmen keep sprouting up in the Middle East. Post-revolutionary critics could freely examine self-inflicted Arab wounds, such as tribalism, religious intolerance, authoritarianism, endemic corruption, closed economies, and gender apartheid.
But so far, “revolutionaries” sound a lot more like reactionaries. They are more often retreating to the tired conspiracies that the Israelis and Americans pushed onto innocent Arab publics homegrown, corrupt madmen such as Bashar Assad, Moammar Qaddafi, and Hosni Mubarak.
In 1967, the more powerful periphery of the Middle East — the Shah’s Iran, Kemalist Turkey, a military-run Pakistan, and the Gulf monarchies — was mostly uninvolved in the Israeli-Arab frontline fighting.
Not now. A soon-to-be-nuclear Iran serially promises to destroy Israel. The Erdogan government in Turkey brags about its Ottoman Islamist past — and wants to provoke Israel into an eastern-Mediterranean shooting war. Pakistan is the world’s leading host and exporter of jihadists obsessed with destroying Israel. The oil-rich Gulf states use their vast petroleum wealth and clout to line up oil importers against Israel. The 21st-century United Nations is a de facto enemy of the Jewish state.
Meanwhile, the West is nearly bankrupt. The European Union is on the brink of dissolving, its population shrinking amid growing numbers of Islamic immigrants.
America is $16 trillion in debt. We are tired of three wars. The Obama administration initially thought putting a little light between Israel and the United States might coax Arab countries into negotiating a peace. That new American triangulation certainly has given a far more confident Muslim world more hope — but it is hope that just maybe the United States cannot or will not come to Israel’s aid if Muslim states ratchet up the tension.
It is trendy to blame Israeli intransigence for all these bleak developments. But to do so is simply to forget history. There were three Arab efforts to destroy Israel before it occupied any borderlands after its victory in 1967. Later, it gave back all of Sinai and yet now faces a hostile Egypt. It got out of Lebanon — and Hezbollah crowed that Israel was weakening, as that terrorist organization moved in and stockpiled thousands of missiles pointed at Tel Aviv. Israel got out of Gaza and earned as thanks both rocket showers and a terrorist Hamas government sworn to destroy the Jewish state.
The Arab Middle East damns Israel for not granting a “right of return” to Palestinians who have not lived there in nearly 70 years. But it keeps embarrassed silence about the more than half-million Jews whom Arab dictatorships much later ethnically cleansed from Baghdad, Damascus, and Cairo, and sent back into Israel. On cue, the Palestinian ambassador to the United States again brags that there will be no Jews allowed in his newly envisioned and American-subsidized Palestinian state — a boast with eerie historical parallels.
By now we know both what will start and what will deter yet another conflict in the Middle East. In the past, wars broke out when the Arab states thought they could win them and stopped when they realized they could not.
But now a new array of factors — ever more Islamist enemies of Israel such as Turkey and Iran, ever more likelihood of frontline Arab Islamist governments, ever more fear of Islamic terrorism, ever more unabashed anti-Semitism, ever more petrodollars flowing into the Middle East, ever more prospects of nuclear Islamist states, and ever more indifference by Europe and the United States — has probably convinced Israel’s enemies that finally they can win what they could not in 1947, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, and 2006.
So brace yourself. The next war against Israel is no longer a matter of if — only when. And it will be far more deadly than any we’ve witnessed in quite some time.
— Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and the author, most recently, of The End of Sparta, a novel about ancient freedom. © 2011 Tribune Media Services, Inc.
COMMENTS 177
COLLAPSE 
Edwin D. Schindler : 09/25/11 21:37 | |
Israel will survive for the very simple reason that it can and, if necessary, will destroy the militaries of any and all of its enemies, whether they be Arab or Iranian, and its enemies know it! Otherwise, Israel would already have been (or be) under military attack. The fact is that Israel is surrounded by "noisy," but inept neighbors. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/25/11 20:17 | |
President Obama needs to be reminded that peace, freedom, societal rights and independence, are not just for the Palestianians. These are rights the Israels need as well being that its the Jewish homeland that has been continually under siege by foreign armies and intelligence services for over 60 years. Obama likely understands some of the plight and vulnerability of the state of Israel. But obama's inherent leftism and orientation to third world claims against a Western modern state like Israel, makes him act is like an insincere false prophet. Obama is critical of Israel for lack of restraint in her own internal/external security matters. Meanwhile, Obama pretty much ignores Iran and Syria's human rights catastrophies. This president needs to mature before our external and internal affairs are permanently hobbled Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
sotto voce : 09/26/11 19:11 | |
Obama needs to mature? Please don't hold your breath. Obama needs to be removed before his obtuse, naive and dangerous foreign policy delusions cause more damage, not only to Israel and the U.S. but the rest of the West. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Newsell : 09/23/11 16:32 | |
Mr. Hanson, You are to kind....the Obione Cairo speech was a coded message to the MENA Muslim nations to unleash the dogs of war...great job right? But there is hope after his speech to the UN and I applaud that message. But he did start this mess in the first place.. If you want to see how a nation is abandoned for "policy", political expediency and to sell it's soul to the devil, go check out how the UK Labor Government sold out Rhodesia. And to this day they still sell them out - Cameron is a fraud with his "the UN should help citizens of repressive regimes". Go tell that to China, Syria, Yemen, North Korea etc...the man is an ideological driven idiot. Must be a relation of Chamberlain... Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Rance : 09/23/11 16:07 | |
Unfortunately, VDH, I have come to the same conclusion in the past few months. With the PA attempting to bypass an official recognition of Israel to get their state, I have realized that the "Arab community" has decided to take a new tack in achieving their regional goals. I believe they will feel strong enough for a concerted push when the Iranian theocrats get their nuclear weapons capability. The Arabs hate the Persians you say. Well, their thinking I believe is "Me against my brother...etc." They are all Muslim in the end. Something terrible is going to happen within the next decade I fear. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/23/11 00:34 | |
If you all in the U.S. want to fix your economy, you should offer an open border to Israel. Assuming they all came you'd have a pool of the most talented immigrants on earth to grow your country. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
skarlson : 09/23/11 00:03 | |
The truth is Israel has been punished for years because of their rejection of the Messiah and continued refusal to repent. Now suddenly Israel has been allowed a nation again if ever so seemingly tenuous. This is not because Israel has suddenly turned over a new leaf. This is because Israel as a nation is required in God's end of days programming. Israel will not fall and all who curse her will be cursed. Blessed are those who bless you and cursed are those who curse you. Ultimately Israel will be the only nation standing when all others are cast out of Christ's future kingdom eternally separated from a holy God because they have no place in a perfect world lest they corrupt it anew. Christians and those Jews who have accepted the Messiah, Jesus Christ, will reign as one nation and people forever and all others will perish. The question isn't will Israel survive but rather when it does will you be a part of it. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Josh K : 09/23/11 16:23 | |
Skarlson, when God reveals the truth, I'll take my chances. I'll believe in a God who judges on the basis of how people lived their lives. There are evil Christians, Islamists, and Jews. There are gracious Christians, Islamists, and Jews. I believe in a just God, not one who places ritual or pledges or "last minute salvation," ahead of living a righteous life. And I'll take my chances with others--Jew, Christian, Muslim--who believe the same. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 22:27 | |
The article by Hanson reveals his total lack of knowledge regarding the militaries of nations in the middle East. The comments indicate most people don't have a clue of Israel's prowess if any combination of Muslim supremacists attack them. Israel's conventional power is enough to defeat Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Syria combined. In the world, only the US and China have more powerful conventional military forces. It will not come to this point , but Jews will never allow another holocaust. Iran will never catch up to Israel in number and yield of their nuclear arsenal. Iran although much larger is more vulnerable because Teheran where the vast majority of Iran industry is located is in a perfect location for maximum damage from a nuke. Iran may soon a few nuclear of devices of low yield. Israel possesses 300 to 400 nukes including H bombs which are 100 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. Iran will cease to existence along with any other country foolish enough to engage in a life and death struggle with Israel. Israel although damaged will definitely survive. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
TBird62 : 09/26/11 15:35 | |
Dang, if that is the case, then maybe we just need to get out of their way and let them bring peace to the Middle East. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 20:07 | |
While the Arab military are historically inept, their politicians are inordinately cunning. I suspect they plan to act soon. At least before we elect a new President next year. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 19:21 | |
AMERICA’S VETO FOR VIOLENCE President Barack Obama has shown the world very clearly what are his objectives. They are to jettison any semblance of principle or integrity in order to try to save his presidency and his now lost potential 2nd term in office. The fact is that his unmitigated error in denying the Palestinians their own state 63 years after their land was taken from them by the then UN, has taken both America and the world nearer to war. The dispossessed Palestinians will now lose whatever residual patience they had for justice and freedom, and there is now the real probability of violence in the Middle East, as a result in an attempt to gain by force what they have tried, but failed, to achieve by diplomacy and non-violence. Meanwhile the lives of 5 million people are still circumscribed by a heavily-armed occupying army that restricts free access of people and goods. As a consequence of Obama's attempt to placate the Israel lobby, we all now have to face the reality of a potential war in the Middle East that will inevitably turn nuclear. Obama has this week had disastrous advice that can impact us all in Europe, and around the world. Israel is the only secret nuclear power in the entire world, and the US colludes in the trick of 'nuclear ambiguity' that allows Israel, of all the 193 states in the world, uniquely to have built a massive nuclear arsenal estimated to hold up to 400 weapons of mass destruction that are undeclared and uninspected by the IAEA. A terrible potential threat to world peace. JRDK Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/25/11 00:54 | |
Wow. Really, go hold your breath for fifteen minutes or something. You are too stupid to be allowed to live, and the sooner your genetic dross is tossed from the gene pool, the better for the rest of humanity. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Nagasaky : 09/23/11 17:37 | |
Are you saying that six million Jews in Israel are a threat to 1.6 billion Muslims and 1.9 billion Christians? Back in 1930s, Hitler was saying that Jews control all the banks, etc., and proceeded by putting all these "powerful" men, women and children into the gas chambers. It always amazes me how 0.3% of the world’s population has had to defend its right to exist for two thousand years. As far as the world’s attitude towards this race, civilization has not progressed beyond the Dark Ages. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Tom_S : 09/22/11 18:25 | |
Food for thought: Would the Islamists in Iran really nuke Israel when that would mean nuking the Dome of the Rock? I actually think that if they stop long enough to think about it, the answer may be no. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/24/11 18:42 | |
Iran would be incinerated if they use a nuke on Judea. They know that. We know that. Israel knows that. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 17:50 | |
The only wonder is how anyone ever thought a state of Israel in its present location would ever be a good short- OR long-term idea. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/23/11 12:00 | |
It's called THE BIBLE - try reading it some time! You might learn something. I see the Islamists are on the march. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
racer99 : 09/23/11 11:56 | |
Actually the land of Israel was given to the Jews for all time by ALmighty God. The REAL Israel encompasses all of present Israel, the west bank, Gaza and a large portion of Lebanon and Jordan. It was prophesied all this would happen and the "rest of the story" will continue. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/23/11 12:44 | |
The Raven : 09/23/11 08:06 | |
Dude, there was Judea long before there was Palestine. If you want to talk about a right to return and historical borders, the Jews can trump the Palestinians any day as a people disposessed of their birthright homelands on multiple occasions. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
dante benedetti : 09/23/11 00:31 | |
is one supposed to conclude that the middle east has room for more than 20 Arab/Muslim states but there is no room for a miniscule Jewish state in the Land of Israel, the ancient Jewish patrimony, the site of ancient and sustained Jewish habitation, thousands of years before the Arab military conquests? was there ever an independent state in this land except under the Jews? another point: THE ARAB WAR AGAINST ISRAEL WAS NOT INEVITABLE: IT IS THE PRODUCT OF A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN BUILT ON HATE AND DESTRUCTION AND WHICH REJECTED COMITY AND PROGRESS. it was enough to be oppose the Jews; that was a more than sufficient substitute for any type of achievement. so, the "Palestinians" have produced hate and destruction and not much else...and, those few who seem to mind, are eager to blame the Jews for that, as well. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
kramartini : 09/22/11 23:11 | |
Israel is a good idea for the hundreds of thousands of Jews who sought refuge from Arab hatred throughout the Middle East. At least in Israel they have a fighting chance, whereas if they had stayed in the Arab countries all of the Jews in the Middle East would have long ago been slaughtered. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 21:38 | |
Many opposed it for just that reason, especially the US State Department. But there weren't many choice available, and I'd say they've done alright. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Oneoff : 09/22/11 19:36 | |
They should have been given a piece of Germany, or better yet Greenland, they don't play well with others, better to have no neighbors. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
Josh K : 09/23/11 16:35 | |
The Jews ACCEPTED the partitioning that ended the British Mandate. The Arabs rejected it as they thought they could wipe the Jews into the sea. In 1948, they failed. By 1956, they thought they could wipe the Jews into the sea again. They failed. By 1967, AGAIN they thought they could wipe the Jews into the sea. They failed. In 1973, the Arabs attacked on Yom Kippur, the Jews' holiest day, and made advancements. Israel's counterattack pushed them back, and they failed. Egypt made peace with Israel, and Jordan made peace with Israel. Lebanon became a failed state that Syria used to attack Israel. It turns out it's SYRIA and IRAN that can't play well with others. By the way, why haven't the other Arab countries welcomed the Palestinians into their oil-rich societies? Look at the history of Jews in Europe, too. Jews not only made good neighbors but lived in peace with their neighbors in some cases for hundreds of years. You cite Germany...it turns out they didn't play too well with their neighbors in the not-too-distant past, either. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 15:51 | |
There is something truly despicable about Ron Paul and his supporters; something that they share with American fans of Hitler and Stalin. In their case, like in the others, a little bit of McCarthyism would be both justified and appropriate. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 17:24 | |
: 09/22/11 15:28 | |
ask not "will israel survive?". ask "will any infidel nation survive?" the way western countries are allowing muslim invaders to colonize their countries and breed at public expense, the answer is probably "no". to survive, the nations who do not require their citizens to worship an evil god and venerate a criminal prophet must get rid of their muslim invaders, and keep them out. this is the opposite of what is happening. foolish infidels are importing muslims like they were cheap chinese manufactured goods. unless something really dramatic happens, the internal enemies of our countries will continue to import and coddle muslim invaders. we cannot depend on the violent jihadists to commit enough terror to awaken those deeply comatose traitors who coddle muslims, worship them, call them "peaceful", and aid and abet them in the conquest of our nation. perhaps seeing mass genocide in israel would wake up our traitors, or at least wake up our population enough for them to depose our ruling traitors. perhaps not. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
: 09/22/11 17:14 | |
Don't blame "an evil god and a criminal prophet." Islam worships the same god as Christians and Jews. And at one time, the Ottoman Empire was the pinnacle of human civilization, and for pretty much the same reasons we think we're the pinnacle of civilization today: science, medicine, literacy, trade, and religious tolerance. Today a perverse strain of Islam is victimizing millions--including millions of Muslims. Hopefully we can stop pandering to the self serving theocrats and despots who indoctrinate people into this dangerous form of Islam, and foster a return to something that can peacefully coexist with Judeo-Christian civilization. Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse | |
October 3, 2011
Can Israel Survive?
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/10/can_israel_survive.htmlBy Rob Miller
There's a great deal of speculation these days on Israel's dire situation, most notably from renowned author and scholar Victor Davis Hanson in the National Review, who prefaces it with a remark that the country has never been in more danger.
The Islamist regimes in Egypt and elsewhere brought on by the Arab Spring and their growing hostility to Israel, the genocidal influence of Iran and its missile-armed proxies Hamas and Hezb'allah, Erdoğan's Islamist Turkey, the huge influence of Arab petro-dollars, and the indifference and growing anti-Semitism in much of Europe and the exhaustion and debt of the United States are frequently cited.
It's a gloomy picture, and none of it is to be trivialized. But I think dire predictions of Israel's demise are premature, to say the least.
It's worth remembering that Israel has faced far worse and survived. In 1948, the British left Palestine, but not before confiscating as many arms in the hands of Jews as they could find and turning over strategic locations to Israel's genocidal enemies. In the year leading up to that conflict, the British armed the Arab nations with modern weapons including aircraft and tanks in spite of their open and explicit threats of jihad against Israel's Jews. In the case of Jordan, the British not only trained the Arab Legion, but officered it during the 1948 war and oversaw the ethnic cleansing of Jews from their homes in Judea, Samaria, and East Jerusalem, led by a Jew-hating British colonel by the name of John Glubb, AKA Glubb Pasha. And this was a mere three years after the liberation of Auschwitz.
The Jews had no aircraft or artillery, and used homemade "Davidka" mortars and improvised armored trucks as "tanks." They were unable to purchase weapons from the United States because President Truman decided to put an arms embargo on both sides, something that affected Israel greatly and the Arabs not at all, since they were able to purchase arms openly from Britain and other European countries, many of whom were unwilling to sell arms to Israel for fear of angering the oil-rich Arabs. In one of the ironies of history, a major cache of the arms the Jews used to win their war of independence were Nazi arms left over from the occupation of Czechoslovakia, purchased by Israel on the black market.
Somehow, the Jews prevailed against the attempted second Holocaust. And without the help of Europe, the United States, or the U.N.
They prevailed again in 1967, after a last-minute cutoff of arms and supplies from Charles DeGaulle deprived them of all arms and supplies from France, their major arms source. The U.S. remained neutral during that war and supplied no arms to the Jewish State, who were facing war on three fronts from Arab nations armed with the latest Soviet weapons. The Six Day War was a miracle not only because Israel won against overwhelming odds, but because they were able to win before the supplies and spare parts for their French weapons ran out.
Today's situation is not to be underestimated, but it is not nearly as dire as it might seem. In many ways, Israel's position is far more secure and superior than it was then.
The French betrayal in 1967 had a positive aspect in that it taught the Israelis not to rely overly on foreign-made armaments. Today, Israel has a thriving state-of-the-art arms industry of its own with products rivaling the best made anywhere, and the advantage that they're no longer at the mercy of another country for spare parts for most of their weaponry. The two main areas the Israelis have not gone into are fighter aircraft and helicopter gunships, both of which they still purchase from the U.S. However, they have produced aircraft in the past like the Kfir and the Avi and might very well make the decision to do so again. And their armed and unarmed drones are top-quality.
Israel has a decent arsenal of ballistic missiles, and they also possess a small fleet of nuclear-armed Dolphin class submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles and hitting pretty much anything in the Middle East with precision.
They also have the best-trained and most lethal fighting force in the region...and they're free men fighting to defend their homes.
Let's compare that with the adversaries that Dr. Hanson and others have mentioned.
Unlike Israel, both Egypt and Turkey are extremely dependent on U.S.-made parts for their military, and it's difficult for me to believe that America would continue to supply them in a war against Israel, even with a President Obama in the White House. Also, neither can afford a war financially. Egypt is bankrupt with a population it can't afford to feed, and Turkey is sitting on a huge credit bubble that could burst at any moment. A war with Israel would also probably involve Turkey leaving NATO, since neither the U.S. nor NATO's European members would likely get involved in the conflict.
Turkey also has the disadvantage of logistics. They have large conventional forces, but getting them in position to fight Israel would involve crossing huge distances, not to mention the problem of air support. And their military command, having recently been purged by PM Erdoğan, is lacking in depth and experience. Both nations will almost certainly stay out and confine themselves to hostility and encouraging actual combatants.
Hamas and Hezb'allah (and I would also include the Palestinian Authority, thanks to the U.S.-trained and equipped military America gifted to Fatah) remain Israel's immediate threats, largely because Hamas and Hezb'allah remain Iran's proxies in any war with Israel.
Thanks to the inept leadership of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former defense minister Amir Peretz, neither of whom had ever held military command, the IDF was thrown haphazardly into Lebanon against Hezb'allah in 2006 without adequate planning or logistics and initially suffered heavy casualties, with the unprepared IDF being surprised by Hezb'allah's tactics and their level of training. Northern Israel also sustained heavy damage and civilian casualties from Hezb'allah's missiles. However, once a coordinated ground assault began, Israeli forces ultimately macerated whole units of Hezb'allah's ground forces, and destroyed most of Hezb'allah's missile arsenal.
Unfortunately, thanks to Ehud Barack and Tzipi Livni's bending to pressure from U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice and the U.N., a premature ceasefire was enacted that saved Hezb'allah from destruction and allowed them to regroup, rearm, and consolidate their control over Lebanon.
While they remain a strategic threat, there are several different factors operating today that weren't present in 2006 if war breaks out again.
First, the IDF experienced a major overhaul in tactics, training, equipment, and leadership as a result of the 2006 Lebanon War, and they aren't going to be surprised again by Hezb'allah, or sent into battle without a coordinated plan.
Also, if a new war breaks out, the rules are going to be quite different. In 2006, the IDF was ordered to avoid attacks on Lebanese installations whenever possible, giving Hezb'allah a major advantage because they were able to hide rocket launchers, arms caches, and fighters in civilian areas and in Lebanese government buildings. These days, Hezb'allah essentially controls Lebanon, and the Israelis have made it quite clear that if Hezb'allah attacks Israel again, it's going to be a war between Israel and Lebanon. And based on the Israeli realization of the fiasco that occurred with UNSC Resolution 1701 and UNFIL, this time Hezb'allah may not be rescued by a ceasefire, something I'm sure Hezb'allah's leaders have considered.
Hamas survived Operation Cast Lead in December of 2008 by hiding among civilians in Gaza City after heavy casualties inflicted by the IDF, with its missile arsenal devastated and a number of its top commanders killed. Again, the Olmert government made the decision to declare a unilateral ceasefire and withdraw, rather than put the city under siege, cut off its electricity, and destroy Hamas utterly. While Hamas has re-armed to a degree, there's no reason to think that another war with Israel would result in a Hamas victory.
The real wild card remains Iran, rapidly approaching status as a nuclear power. Much of Iran's threat comes via its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and its ability to launch missile attacks, since Iranian conventional forces are too far removed to make a ground war feasible, and I doubt that Iraq would allow an Iranian army military access in any event.
Would the ayatollahs risk heavy retaliation by attempting to destroy Israel for Allah? Perhaps. But Iran is not a nuclear power yet -- not quite -- and a threat to Israel would of necessity be prefaced by a successful nuclear weapons test. The day that happens, look for the Israelis to launch a major pre-emptive strike on Iran shortly afterwards, which could very well include tactical nukes. As I've mentioned before, such an attack would likely be facilitated by the Saudis, who long ago lost patience with the feckless Obama administration's non-policy on Iran.
It's certainly correct that Israel faces major challenges, and a combined assault by Iran, Hamas, and Hezb'allah would not be a negligible threat. Complacency is not a strategy, and anything can happen in war. But Israel has faced far greater threats before and won handily.
Actually, those speculating on Israel's danger ask the wrong question. The real matter up for discussion is not about Israel's survival, but whether the West will prevail against the assault by Islamism. Because the fate of the West is bound to that of Israel's by the iron chains of history.
Rob Miller writes at Joshuapundit. His work has appeared in The Jerusalem Post, American Thinker, The Los Angeles Times, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The San Francisco Chronicle, Andrew Breitbart's Big Peace, and other publications.
The Islamist regimes in Egypt and elsewhere brought on by the Arab Spring and their growing hostility to Israel, the genocidal influence of Iran and its missile-armed proxies Hamas and Hezb'allah, Erdoğan's Islamist Turkey, the huge influence of Arab petro-dollars, and the indifference and growing anti-Semitism in much of Europe and the exhaustion and debt of the United States are frequently cited.
It's a gloomy picture, and none of it is to be trivialized. But I think dire predictions of Israel's demise are premature, to say the least.
It's worth remembering that Israel has faced far worse and survived. In 1948, the British left Palestine, but not before confiscating as many arms in the hands of Jews as they could find and turning over strategic locations to Israel's genocidal enemies. In the year leading up to that conflict, the British armed the Arab nations with modern weapons including aircraft and tanks in spite of their open and explicit threats of jihad against Israel's Jews. In the case of Jordan, the British not only trained the Arab Legion, but officered it during the 1948 war and oversaw the ethnic cleansing of Jews from their homes in Judea, Samaria, and East Jerusalem, led by a Jew-hating British colonel by the name of John Glubb, AKA Glubb Pasha. And this was a mere three years after the liberation of Auschwitz.
The Jews had no aircraft or artillery, and used homemade "Davidka" mortars and improvised armored trucks as "tanks." They were unable to purchase weapons from the United States because President Truman decided to put an arms embargo on both sides, something that affected Israel greatly and the Arabs not at all, since they were able to purchase arms openly from Britain and other European countries, many of whom were unwilling to sell arms to Israel for fear of angering the oil-rich Arabs. In one of the ironies of history, a major cache of the arms the Jews used to win their war of independence were Nazi arms left over from the occupation of Czechoslovakia, purchased by Israel on the black market.
Somehow, the Jews prevailed against the attempted second Holocaust. And without the help of Europe, the United States, or the U.N.
They prevailed again in 1967, after a last-minute cutoff of arms and supplies from Charles DeGaulle deprived them of all arms and supplies from France, their major arms source. The U.S. remained neutral during that war and supplied no arms to the Jewish State, who were facing war on three fronts from Arab nations armed with the latest Soviet weapons. The Six Day War was a miracle not only because Israel won against overwhelming odds, but because they were able to win before the supplies and spare parts for their French weapons ran out.
Today's situation is not to be underestimated, but it is not nearly as dire as it might seem. In many ways, Israel's position is far more secure and superior than it was then.
The French betrayal in 1967 had a positive aspect in that it taught the Israelis not to rely overly on foreign-made armaments. Today, Israel has a thriving state-of-the-art arms industry of its own with products rivaling the best made anywhere, and the advantage that they're no longer at the mercy of another country for spare parts for most of their weaponry. The two main areas the Israelis have not gone into are fighter aircraft and helicopter gunships, both of which they still purchase from the U.S. However, they have produced aircraft in the past like the Kfir and the Avi and might very well make the decision to do so again. And their armed and unarmed drones are top-quality.
Israel has a decent arsenal of ballistic missiles, and they also possess a small fleet of nuclear-armed Dolphin class submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles and hitting pretty much anything in the Middle East with precision.
They also have the best-trained and most lethal fighting force in the region...and they're free men fighting to defend their homes.
Let's compare that with the adversaries that Dr. Hanson and others have mentioned.
Unlike Israel, both Egypt and Turkey are extremely dependent on U.S.-made parts for their military, and it's difficult for me to believe that America would continue to supply them in a war against Israel, even with a President Obama in the White House. Also, neither can afford a war financially. Egypt is bankrupt with a population it can't afford to feed, and Turkey is sitting on a huge credit bubble that could burst at any moment. A war with Israel would also probably involve Turkey leaving NATO, since neither the U.S. nor NATO's European members would likely get involved in the conflict.
Turkey also has the disadvantage of logistics. They have large conventional forces, but getting them in position to fight Israel would involve crossing huge distances, not to mention the problem of air support. And their military command, having recently been purged by PM Erdoğan, is lacking in depth and experience. Both nations will almost certainly stay out and confine themselves to hostility and encouraging actual combatants.
Hamas and Hezb'allah (and I would also include the Palestinian Authority, thanks to the U.S.-trained and equipped military America gifted to Fatah) remain Israel's immediate threats, largely because Hamas and Hezb'allah remain Iran's proxies in any war with Israel.
Thanks to the inept leadership of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former defense minister Amir Peretz, neither of whom had ever held military command, the IDF was thrown haphazardly into Lebanon against Hezb'allah in 2006 without adequate planning or logistics and initially suffered heavy casualties, with the unprepared IDF being surprised by Hezb'allah's tactics and their level of training. Northern Israel also sustained heavy damage and civilian casualties from Hezb'allah's missiles. However, once a coordinated ground assault began, Israeli forces ultimately macerated whole units of Hezb'allah's ground forces, and destroyed most of Hezb'allah's missile arsenal.
Unfortunately, thanks to Ehud Barack and Tzipi Livni's bending to pressure from U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice and the U.N., a premature ceasefire was enacted that saved Hezb'allah from destruction and allowed them to regroup, rearm, and consolidate their control over Lebanon.
While they remain a strategic threat, there are several different factors operating today that weren't present in 2006 if war breaks out again.
First, the IDF experienced a major overhaul in tactics, training, equipment, and leadership as a result of the 2006 Lebanon War, and they aren't going to be surprised again by Hezb'allah, or sent into battle without a coordinated plan.
Also, if a new war breaks out, the rules are going to be quite different. In 2006, the IDF was ordered to avoid attacks on Lebanese installations whenever possible, giving Hezb'allah a major advantage because they were able to hide rocket launchers, arms caches, and fighters in civilian areas and in Lebanese government buildings. These days, Hezb'allah essentially controls Lebanon, and the Israelis have made it quite clear that if Hezb'allah attacks Israel again, it's going to be a war between Israel and Lebanon. And based on the Israeli realization of the fiasco that occurred with UNSC Resolution 1701 and UNFIL, this time Hezb'allah may not be rescued by a ceasefire, something I'm sure Hezb'allah's leaders have considered.
Hamas survived Operation Cast Lead in December of 2008 by hiding among civilians in Gaza City after heavy casualties inflicted by the IDF, with its missile arsenal devastated and a number of its top commanders killed. Again, the Olmert government made the decision to declare a unilateral ceasefire and withdraw, rather than put the city under siege, cut off its electricity, and destroy Hamas utterly. While Hamas has re-armed to a degree, there's no reason to think that another war with Israel would result in a Hamas victory.
The real wild card remains Iran, rapidly approaching status as a nuclear power. Much of Iran's threat comes via its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and its ability to launch missile attacks, since Iranian conventional forces are too far removed to make a ground war feasible, and I doubt that Iraq would allow an Iranian army military access in any event.
Would the ayatollahs risk heavy retaliation by attempting to destroy Israel for Allah? Perhaps. But Iran is not a nuclear power yet -- not quite -- and a threat to Israel would of necessity be prefaced by a successful nuclear weapons test. The day that happens, look for the Israelis to launch a major pre-emptive strike on Iran shortly afterwards, which could very well include tactical nukes. As I've mentioned before, such an attack would likely be facilitated by the Saudis, who long ago lost patience with the feckless Obama administration's non-policy on Iran.
It's certainly correct that Israel faces major challenges, and a combined assault by Iran, Hamas, and Hezb'allah would not be a negligible threat. Complacency is not a strategy, and anything can happen in war. But Israel has faced far greater threats before and won handily.
Actually, those speculating on Israel's danger ask the wrong question. The real matter up for discussion is not about Israel's survival, but whether the West will prevail against the assault by Islamism. Because the fate of the West is bound to that of Israel's by the iron chains of history.
Rob Miller writes at Joshuapundit. His work has appeared in The Jerusalem Post, American Thinker, The Los Angeles Times, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The San Francisco Chronicle, Andrew Breitbart's Big Peace, and other publications.
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